Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique
分析了全球燃料和食品价格上涨对莫桑比克的影响，发现城市家庭和南部地区更脆弱，而农村家庭可能受益；政策面临短期缓解与长期增长的权衡，提高农业生产力有积极作用但难以实现。
Abstract Rising world prices for fuel and food represent a negative terms‐of‐trade shock for Mozambique. The impacts of these price rises are analyzed using various approaches. Detailed price data show that the world price increases are being transmitted to domestic prices. Short‐run net benefit ratio analysis indicates that urban households and households in the southern region are more vulnerable to food price increases. Rural households, particularly in the North and Center, often benefit from being in a net seller position. Longer‐term analysis using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Mozambique indicates that the fuel price shock dominates rising food prices from both macroeconomic and poverty perspectives. Again, negative impacts are larger in urban areas. The importance of agricultural production response in general and export response in particular is highlighted. Policy analysis reveals difficult trade‐offs between short‐run mitigation and long‐run growth. Improved agricultural productivity has powerful positive impacts, but remains difficult to achieve and may not address the immediate impacts of higher prices.