ESTIMATING INCENTIVE AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF NONSTATIONARY UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
基于德国微观数据，构建均衡匹配模型估计失业救济金改革（哈茨IV）的影响，发现改革使失业率降幅不足0.1个百分点，但多数技能和地区群体的净工资上升；考虑保险效应后，改革对76%的工人福利有损。
The distribution of unemployment duration in our equilibrium matching model with spell‐dependent unemployment benefits displays time‐varying exit rates. Building on semi‐Markov processes, we translate these rates into an expression for the aggregate unemployment rate. Structural estimation using German microdata allows us to discuss the effects of an unemployment benefit reform (Hartz IV). The reform reduced unemployment by less than 0.1 percentage points. Contrary to general beliefs, the net wage for most skill and regional groups increased. Taking the insurance effect of unemployment benefits into account, however, the reform is welfare reducing for 76% of workers.