Measuring Synchronization and Convergence of Business Cycles for the Euro area, UK and US*
通过时间序列模型研究欧元区各国商业周期的同步性和收敛性，使用卡尔曼滤波估计参数，发现欧洲国家与欧元区的周期波动日益相似。
Abstract This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in the Euro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series model. We introduce mechanisms that allow for increasing or diminishing phase shifts and for time‐varying association patterns in different cycles. Standard Kalman filter techniques are used to estimate the parameters simultaneously by maximum likelihood. The empirical illustrations are based on gross domestic product (GDP) series of seven European countries that are compared with the GDP series of the Euro area and that of the US. The original integrated time series are band‐pass filtered. We find that there is an increasing resemblance between the business cycle fluctuations of the European countries analysed and those of the Euro area, although with varying patterns.