Dutch Disease or Agglomeration? The Local Economic Effects of Natural Resource Booms in Modern America
利用美国油气资源禀赋和制造业普查微观数据，研究发现油气繁荣提高了当地工资，制造业整体增长而非被挤出，可贸易制造业子部门虽收缩但生产率未受影响，不支持美国存在“资源诅咒”。
Do natural resources benefit producer economies, or is there a “Natural Resource Curse”, perhaps as the crowd-out of manufacturing productivity spillovers reduces long-term growth? We combine new data on oil and gas endowments with Census of Manufactures microdata to estimate how oil and gas booms affect local economies in the U.S. Local wages rise during oil and gas booms, but manufacturing is not crowded out—in fact, the sector grows overall, driven by upstream and locally-traded subsectors. Tradable manufacturing subsectors do contract during resource booms, but their productivity is unaffected, so there is no evidence of foregone local learning-by-doing effects. Over the full 1969–2014 sample, a county with one standard deviation additional oil and gas endowment averaged about 1% higher real wages. Overall, the results provide evidence against a Natural Resource Curse within the U.S.