Inter-industry Productivity Spillovers: An Analysis Using the 1989–1998 Brazilian Trade Liberalisation
利用1989-1998年巴西贸易自由化作为外生生产率冲击，采用空间计量方法估计行业间垂直溢出效应，发现显著的正向上游溢出，但无下游溢出证据。
A major obstacle in the estimation of inter-industry (vertical) productivity spillovers is the need of an exogenous productivity shock. In this article, I propose the use of trade policy changes as a large productivity shock, since the literature has found evidence that trade liberalisations increase industry-level productivity. To do so, I develop a new empirical methodology using spatial econometrics, and apply it to the large economy-wide shock represented by the 1989–1998 Brazilian trade liberalisation. My results indicate the existence of positive and substantial upstream productivity spillovers. Nevertheless, no evidence of downstream productivity spillovers is found.