飞机发动机维护的结构模型

A structural model of aircraft engine maintenance

Journal of Applied Econometrics · 1994
被引 33
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

构建并估计了一个飞机发动机维护的随机最优停止模型,用于描述航空公司维修人员的决策行为,并利用普惠公司的42台发动机历史数据检验模型在管制放松前后的解释力。

Abstract

Abstract We develop and estimate a simple regenerative optimal stopping model of aircraft engine maintenance that attempts to describe the behaviour of airline maintenance personnel. The model assumes that the decision to send an engine to the shop for overhaul is the solution to a stochastic dynamic programming problem that trades off the expected cost of continuing operation with the attendant risk of engine failure with the cost of performing the overhaul. We estimate the model using 42 engine histories from Pratt & Whitney, Inc. Estimation results indicate that such a model does not explain observed engine histories before deregulation, but does fit the data in the era since deregulation. The model also provides insight into the perceived relative costs of engine maintenance, in‐flight shutdown, and ordinary operation.

航空发动机维护最优停时模型随机动态规划维修决策