Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving, and Monetary Policy
在一个包含外部习惯形成的新凯恩斯模型中分析货币政策，发现考虑预防性储蓄动机后，面对持续负面冲击时应采取宽松政策，而正面冲击后应更紧缩，甚至生产率上升时最优加息。
This paper analyzes the conduct of monetary policy in an environment in which cyclical swings in risk appetite affect households’ propensity to save. It uses a New Keynesian model featuring external habit formation to show that taking note of precautionary saving motives justifies an accommodative policy bias in the face of persistent, adverse disturbances. Equally, policy should be more restrictive—that is “lean against the wind”—following positive shocks. Under sufficiently persistent habits it is, in fact, optimal to increase interest rates following a rise in productivity.