Exploring the Nature of “Trader Intuition”
实验发现无信息交易者能从交易过程中推断信息，研究提出心理理论（识别意图的能力）可解释此现象，并发现预测价格变化的能力与心理理论测试得分相关。
ABSTRACT Experimental evidence has consistently confirmed the ability of uninformed traders, even novices, to infer information from the trading process. After contrasting brain activation in subjects watching markets with and without insiders, we hypothesize that Theory of Mind (ToM) helps explain this pattern, where ToM refers to the human capacity to discern malicious or benevolent intent. We find that skill in predicting price changes in markets with insiders correlates with scores on two ToM tests. We document GARCH‐like persistence in transaction price changes that may help investors read markets when there are insiders.