Analogical reasoning for diagnosing strategic issues in dynamic and complex environments
研究了组织如何通过类比推理将战略问题分类为机会或威胁，发现推理形式、环境特性和时间因素共同影响判断准确性，对管理者在动态复杂环境中决策有参考价值。
Organizations interpret their environments by categorizing strategic issues as either opportunities or threats. They make such categorizations as inferences drawn from analogies from past experience. The accuracy of issue interpretations turns on: (1) which analogy is used, (2) what are the environment's properties, and (3) what is the timeframe? A computational model allows us to evaluate over time the accuracy of interpretations based on different forms of analogical reasoning in environments that differ in variation (unpredictability and dynamism) and complexity (dimensionality and ruggedness). This study elaborates a contingency approach to assessing analogical reasoning by organizations in which the form of analogical reasoning, environmental properties, and time all matter. Our findings indicate when particular forms of reasoning produce relatively more accurate inferences about opportunities and threats . Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.