ON THE PROBLEM OF PREVENTION
指出灾害常因预防不足而起，而这种不足源于理性计算：正面经验让人低估风险，安全技术改进反而降低警惕，最终事故概率不变。对经济学、风险管理、公共政策研究者有参考价值。
Disasters are often precipitated by insufficient preventive care. We argue that there is a problem of prevention in that this lack of care often stems from agents’ rational calculations. Positive experiences lead agents to underestimate the risks of disasters; technological improvements and redundancies designed for safety induce agents to reduce their care. Although lower care increases the chances of an accident, the number of redundancies can be adjusted to offset this. However, the accident probability remains constant even as ostensible improvements in safety are made. Checklists can be used to decrease the number of accidents.