Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS
在艾滋病传播模型中引入行为选择,发现高风险人群可能因宿命论而减少活动幅度较小,导致伴侣池质量恶化,产生多重稳态,早期公共卫生干预有助于达到更优稳态。
Increased HIV risk creates incentives for people with low sexual activity to reduce their activity, but may make high-activity people fatalistic, leading them to reduce their activity only slightly, or actually increase it. If high-activity people reduce their activity by a smaller proportion than low-activity people, the composition of the pool of available partners will worsen, creating positive feedbacks, and possibly multiple steady states. Early public health efforts may allow societies to reach more favorable steady states.