通过选择确定主观概率

On the Determination of Subjective Probability by Choices

Management Science · 2000
被引 55
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

比较了两种状态依赖偏好公理系统的主观概率唯一性,发现Karni-Schmeidler系统能保证唯一性和稳定性,而Karni-Schmeidler-Vind系统不能;当偏好状态独立时,KS概率比经典Anscombe-Aumann概率更能代表信念。

Abstract

The paper explores the uniqueness properties of the subjective probabilities in two axiomatizations of state-dependent preferences. Karni, Schmeidler, and Vind's (KSV 1983) system depends on selecting an arbitrary auxiliary probability, and as such, does not guarantee the uniqueness of the derived subjective probability. However, an axiom system initially designed by Karni and Schmeidler (KS 1981) and further elaborated upon here does guarantee the desired uniqueness as well as a useful property of “stability” of the derived solution. When the preference relation displays state-independence, even the KS probabilities may not agree with those derived from the classic Anscombe-Aumann (AA 1963) theorem. However, we claim that, in this case, the KS rather than the AA probabilities are the appropriate representation of the agent's beliefs.

主观概率状态依赖偏好公理化唯一性