Dairy farms without quotas in Belgium: estimation and simulation with a flexible cost function
利用比利时奶牛场面板数据估计灵活成本函数，模拟取消牛奶配额并降低奶价同时增加直接补偿支付对农场供应和收入的影响，发现奶价降低20%时总供应和收入与2006年持平。
This paper evaluates the farm-level supply and income effects from removing milk quotas and reducing producer prices with increasing direct compensatory payments. Using a panel of Belgian dairy farms, we first estimate a multi-output multi-input flexible cost function that generates a U-shaped marginal cost curve for each farm of the sample. We then embed each farm cost function in a profit-maximisation programming model that is built and calibrated for each farm in the sample. Accounting for farm heterogeneity, the simulations show how dairy farms without quotas may respond differently to changes in prices and structural changes that may take place within the dairy sector. A quota removal with a 20 per cent reduction in milk prices keeps aggregate milk supply and farm income at about the same level of the 2006 reference year. © 2011 Oxford University Press and Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics. All rights reserved.