Intertemporal CAPM with Conditioning Variables
推导并检验了一个基于条件变量的跨期资本资产定价模型，引入一个与现金流新闻和滞后状态变量交互作用的新因子，发现该模型能较好解释规模、账面市值比和动量组合的超额收益差异，为动量效应提供了理性解释。
This paper derives and tests an intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) based on a conditional version of the Campbell–Vuolteenaho two-beta ICAPM (bad beta, good beta (BBGB)). The novel factor is a scaled cash-flow factor that results from the interaction between cash-flow news and a lagged state variable (market dividend yield or consumer price index inflation). The cross-sectional tests over 10 portfolios sorted on size, 10 portfolios sorted on book-to-market, and 10 portfolios sorted on momentum show that the scaled ICAPM explains relatively well the dispersion in excess returns on the 30 portfolios. The results for an alternative set of equity portfolios (25 portfolios sorted on size and momentum) show that the scaled ICAPM prices particularly well the momentum portfolios. Moreover, the scaled ICAPM compares favorably with alternative asset pricing models in pricing both sets of equity portfolios. The scaled factor is decisive to account for the dispersion in average excess returns between past winner and past loser stocks. More specifically, past winners are riskier than past losers in times of high price of risk. Therefore, a time-varying cash-flow beta/price of risk provides a rational explanation for momentum. This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance.