Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market
区分了原油实际价格冲击的三种来源：石油供给冲击、全球工业品需求冲击和原油市场特有需求冲击，发现不同冲击对油价和美国宏观经济的影响不同，并解释了近期油价上涨未导致美国严重衰退的原因。
Shocks to the real price of oil may reflect oil supply shocks, shocks to the global demand for all industrial commodities, or demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Each shock has different effects on the real price of oil and on US macroeconomic aggregates. Changes in the composition of shocks help explain why regressions of macroeconomic aggregates on oil prices tend to be unstable. Evidence that the recent surge in oil prices was driven primarily by global demand shocks helps explain why this shock so far has failed to cause a major recession in the United States.