Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment
解释蚂蚁在相同食物源间集中转移的行为,类比人类餐厅选择,提出随机招募模型,将金融市场中的“羊群效应”解释为随机过程的均衡分布,而非多重均衡切换。
This paper offers an explanation of behavior that puzzled entomologists and economists. Ants, faced with two identical food sources, were observed to concentrate more on one of these, but after a period they would turn their attention to the other. The same phenomenon has been observed in humans choosing between restaurants. After discussing the nature of foraging and recruitment behavior in ants, a simple model of stochastic recruitment is suggested. This explains the ''herding'' and ''epidemics'' described in the literature on financial markets as corresponding to the equilibrium distribution of a stochastic process rather than to switching between multiple equilibria.