Analysts' forecasts as proxies for investor beliefs in empirical research
分析分析师预测与投资者信念的关系，并探讨其对盈余公告时价格和交易量反应的影响，为理解实证研究及设计市场反应检验提供参考。
We analyze how analysts' forecasts relate to investor beliefs and describe the implications of these relations for price and volume reactions to earnings surprises. We show that dispersion among forecasts does not fully capture investor uncertainty. We also show how the relations between market reactions and forecast properties differ under the alternative assumptions of exogenous and endogenous private information acquisition. Finally, the analysis suggests refined tests for volume reactions at the time of an announcement. Our results indicate that the model is useful for understanding and interpreting empirical work and developing empirical tests of market reactions to announcements.