Expectations, Life Expectancy, and Economic Behavior
通过问卷调查发现，人们会依据过去寿命改善来设定主观预期寿命，且主观分布方差大于精算值、随年龄递减；这些发现对社保、年金、储蓄和终身收入分析有启示。
The formation of individuals' horizons, which is central to the theory of life-cycle behavior, has been completely neglected. This is especially surprising, since the life expectancy of adults has recently increased rapidly in Western countries. This study analyzes responses to a questionnaire designed to elicit subjective expectations and probabilities of survival. People do extrapolate past improvements in longevity when they determine their subjective horizons, and they are fully aware of levels of and movements within today's life tables. The subjective distribution has greater variance than its actuarial counterpart; and the subjective variance decreases with age. The implications of these findings for optimal Social Security, for the construction of annuities, for the analysis of savings behavior, and for evaluating lifetime earnings are discussed.