Estimating Leakage from Forest Carbon Sequestration Programs
结合分析、计量和部门优化模型，估算美国不同森林碳汇活动的泄漏效应，发现泄漏率从不足10%到超过90%不等，表明碳泄漏在核算林业减排净效果时不可忽视。
<i>Leakage from forest carbon sequestration—the amount of a program’s direct carbon benefits undermined by carbon releases else-where—depends critically on demanders’ ability to substitute non-reserved timber for timber targeted by the program. A nalytic, econometric, and sector-level optimization models are combined to estimate leakage from different forest carbon sequestration activities. Empirical estimates for the United States show leakage ranges from minimal (< 10%) to enormous (> 90%), depending on the activity and region. These results suggest that leakage effects should not be ignored in accounting for the net level of greenhouse gas offsets from land use and forestry mitigation activities.</i>