Perceiving Prospects Properly
研究发现,信息处理中的噪声会产生类似赢家诅咒的效应,导致无偏感知系统性地高估所选行动。最优感知模式呈现前景理论的关键特征,即高估小概率事件,以纠正赢家诅咒。
When an agent chooses between prospects, noise in information processing generates an effect akin to the winner's curse. Statistically unbiased perception systematically overvalues the chosen action because it fails to account for the possibility that noise is responsible for making the preferred action appear to be optimal. The optimal perception pattern exhibits a key feature of prospect theory, namely, overweighting of small probability events (and corresponding underweighting of high probability events). This bias arises to correct for the winner's curse effect.