The Incentive Effects of Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence from the Interwar Era
利用两次世界大战期间美国数据，研究边际所得税率变化对应税收入的影响，发现效应方向符合预期但经济规模较小，且估计精确稳健。
This paper uses the interwar United States as a laboratory for investigating the incentive effects of marginal income tax rates. We examine the impact of the large changes in rates in this period on taxable income using time-series/cross-section analysis of data by small slices of the income distribution. We find that the effect operated in the expected direction but was economically small, and that it is precisely estimated and highly robust. We also find suggestive time-series evidence of a positive impact of marginal rate cuts on business formation, but no evidence of an important effect on other indicators of investment.