Bayesian approaches to the value of information: implications for the regulation of new pharmaceuticals
运用贝叶斯决策理论和信息价值分析，指出当前新药监管要求的信息量随意、类型不相关且标准统一，并提出如何判断经济研究中的证据是否充分可靠，对监管者和药企有参考价值。
The current regulation of new pharmaceuticals is inefficient because it demands arbitrary amounts of information, the type of information demanded is not relevant to decision-makers and the same standards of evidence are applied across different technologies. Bayesian decision theory and an analysis of the value of both perfect and sample information is used to consider the efficient regulation of new pharmaceuticals. This type of analysis can be used to decide whether the evidence in an economic study provides 'sufficient substantiation' for an economic claim, and assesses whether evidence can be regarded as 'competent and reliable'.