Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
分析了1963年至2011年间六个数据来源的投资者对未来股市收益预期的时序数据，发现这些预期彼此高度正相关，且与过去收益和市场水平正相关，但与模型预期收益负相关，不符合理性预期代表投资者模型。
We analyze time series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns.