Would you Pay for Transparently Useless Advice? A Test of Boundaries of Beliefs in The Folly of Predictions
实验发现，即使知道预测结果完全随机，人们在目睹短期准确预测后仍愿意付费，挑战了标准经济模型对专家预测需求的假设。
Standard economic models assume that the demand for expert predictions arises only under the conditions in which individuals are uncertain about the underlying process generating the data and there is a strong belief that past performances predict future performances. We set up the strongest possible test of these assumptions. In contrast to the theoretical suggestions made in the literature, people are willing to pay for predictions of truly random outcomes after witnessing only a short streak of accurate predictions live in the lab. We discuss potential explanations and implications of such irrational learning in the contexts of economics and finance. © 2015 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology