Conditional Cash Transfers, Schooling, and Child Labor: Micro-Simulating Brazil's Bolsa Escola Program
提出一种事前评估方法，模拟巴西Bolsa Escola项目的影响，发现该项目使约60%的失学贫困儿童入学，但对贫困率和基尼系数的降低效果有限。
A growing number of developing economies \n are providing cash transfers to poor people that require \n certain behaviors on their part, such as attending school or \n regularly visiting health care facilities. A simple ex ante \n methodology is proposed for evaluating such programs and \n used to assess the bolsa escola program in Brazil. The \n results suggest that about 60 percent of poor 10- to \n 15-year-olds not in school enroll in response to the \n program. The program reduces the incidence of poverty by \n only a little more than one percentage point, however, and \n the Gini coefficient falls just half a point. Results are \n better for measures more sensitive to the bottom of the \n distribution, but the effect is never large.