Postwar Developments in Business Cycle Theory: A Moderately Classical Perspective
指出宏观模型中菲利普斯曲线或总供给部分对商业周期至关重要，但现有模型存在缺陷；尽管如此，仍可设计出能实现近零通胀和较小产出波动的货币政策规则，并描述了该规则及其有效性。
For issues regarding business cycles, the Phillips curve or aggregate supply portion of a macroeconomic model's specification is crucial. Unfortunately, the relevant dynamic behavior is poorly understood: flexible-price models appear inconsistent with the data, while existing sticky-price models are unlikely to be policy invariant. Nevertheless, current knowledge is adequate to design a rule for monetary policy that would, if maintained, result in near-zero inflation and output fluctuations that are small by historical standards. An operational rule of this type is described and some indication of its effectiveness is reported. Copyright 1988 by Ohio State University Press.