Explaining the Transition between Exchange Rate Regimes*
用随时间变化的马尔可夫链模型研究汇率制度转换，发现通胀、产出增长和贸易开放度能解释转换动态，对研究汇率政策的经济学者有参考价值。
Abstract This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time‐varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation and, to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.