How Did Britain Democratize? Views from the Sovereign Bond Market
通过分析英国1832、1867和1884年改革法案及宪章运动期间的主权债券市场反应，发现民主改革前政治风险上升，改革或镇压后债券收益率下降，挑战了英国民主化无风险的“辉格”叙事。
To assess competing theories of democratization, we analyze British sovereign bond market responses to the 1832, 1867, and 1884 Reform Acts, and to two failed Chartist agitations for reform. Analyses of high-frequency 3 percent consol yield data and historical financial press suggest three conclusions. First, democratic reform episodes were preceded by increases in perceived political risk, comparable to democratizing episodes in other countries. Second, both democratic reform and repression were followed by yield declines. Third, the source of political risk in Britain was both social unrest and political deadlock. Together, the findings challenge the “Whig” characterization of British democratization as exceptionally risk-free.