Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Survey Data
利用美国利文斯顿调查和专业预测者调查中的预期数据，研究发现预期变化是经济波动的重要驱动因素，且货币政策会对此做出反应。
Abstract Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity from the Livingston Survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study how changes in expectations and their interaction with monetary policy contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. We find that changes in expected future economic activity are a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations: a perception that good times are ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity and inflation. We also find that the short-term interest rate rises in response to expectations of good times as monetary policy tightens.