Joint Implications of Consumption and Tax Smoothing
证明消费平滑与税收平滑的联合假设意味着政府非利息支出的预期比例下降的现值近似等于预算赤字和私人负储蓄的对数线性函数，并使用美国二战后年度数据在VAR框架下检验，结果支持该理论。
In this paper, the joint hypotheses of consumption and tax smoothing are shown to imply that the present value of expected proportionate declines in government non-interest outlays is approximately equal to a log-linear function of the budget deficit and private dissaving. In this exact linear relation, the budget deficit signals declines in future government outlays, after controlling for prospective changes in the tax base. Private dissaving controls for such prospective changes since, under the joint hypotheses, the present value of expected proportionate rises in tax revenues are approximately equal to a log-linear function of private dissaving. Both exact linear relations are tested in a VAR framework on annual post-World War II U.S. data. We find considerable empirical support for the theory.