Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States
构建动态一般均衡模型，分析美国商品部门就业下降的原因，发现贸易逆差仅解释15.1%的下降，主要原因是部门间生产率差异增长。
Since the early 1990s, as the United States borrowed heavily from the rest of the world, employment in the US goods-producing sector has fallen.We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with several mechanisms that could generate declining goods-sector employment: foreign borrowing, nonhomothetic preferences, and differential productivity growth across sectors. We find that only 15.1 percent of the decline in goods-sector employment from 1992 to 2012 stems from US trade deficits; most of the decline is due to differential productivity growth. As the United States repays its debt, its trade balance will reverse, but goods-sector employment will continue to fall.