Simple Monetary Policymaking without the Output Gap
指出产出缺口存在实时不确定性，提出仅依赖调查通胀信息的简单货币政策规则可能比优化泰勒规则更有效，即使只用历史通胀数据也能改进泰勒规则。
Several research contributions have argued that information about the output gap is essential for a good monetary policy rule. However, as pointed out by Orphanides (2001), there is considerable real-time uncertainty about the size of the output gap. The paper argues that simple monetary policy rules that rely exclusively on (survey-based) information about future and past inflation rates may be more efficient than optimized Taylor rules once real-time output gap uncertainty is accounted for. Even when only information about historical inflation rates is available, a very simple policy rule may be constructed that improves on the Taylor rule.