A Simple Bayesian Procedure for Sample Size Determination in an Audit of Property Value Appraisals
提出一种简单的贝叶斯方法，用于审计房产评估是否达到政府精度标准，通过整合专家意见和灵活处理新信息，显著减少正常运作时的复评数量，并便于向非统计人员报告结果。
The article proposes a simple Bayesian technique for auditing property appraisals to determine whether state accuracy guidelines are met. The proposed technique addresses elicitation of appraisers' prior beliefs, computation of reappraisal sample sizes and reporting of audit results. To facilitate communication of quantitative audit findings to nonstatistician stakeholders, the concept of variance appears nowhere in prior elicitation or reporting. In contrast to classical frequentist techniques, the Bayesian procedure easily integrates expert judgment and responds flexibly to the arrival of new information. In addition, the Bayesian procedure significantly reduces the number of reappraisals required to regulate appraisal systems when they are functioning well. The technique can be applied in other settings where government officials audit their own work and must convince overseers, especially the public, that accuracy requirements are satisfied.