A DEFENSE OF THE FOMC*
为联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的预测表现辩护，认为其预测反映最坏情况，用于设计稳健决策，并通过宏观模型和损失函数解释与绿皮书预测的差异。
We defend the forecasting performance of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) against the criticism of Christina and David Romer (2008, American Economic Review 98, 230–235) by assuming that the FOMC’s forecasts depict a worst‐case scenario that it uses to design decisions that are robust to misspecification of the staff’s model. We use a simple macro model and a plausible loss function to illustrate how such an interpretation of the FOMC’s forecasts can explain the findings of Romer and Romer, including the pattern of differences between FOMC forecasts and forecasts published by the staff of the Federal Reserve System in the Greenbook.