The Meta Taylor Rule
在传统泰勒规则基础上，通过贝叶斯模型平均方法整合多种规则设定，利用实时数据刻画了美国过去40年货币政策的灵活特征。
We characterize U.S. monetary policy within a generalized Taylor rule framework that accommodates uncertainties about the duration of policy regimes and the specification of the rule, in addition to the standard parameter and stochastic uncertainties inherent in traditional Taylor rule analysis. Our approach involves estimation and inference based on Taylor rules obtained through standard linear regression methods, but combined using Bayesian model averaging techniques. Employing data that were available in real time, the estimated version of the “meta” Taylor rule provides a flexible but compelling characterization of monetary policy in the United States over the last 40 years.