ON FISCAL MULTIPLIERS: ESTIMATES FROM A MEDIUM SCALE DSGE MODEL
利用估计的动态随机一般均衡模型，发现政府支出乘数为1.07且冲击当期最大，而减税效应需12-20个季度才超过支出刺激效果，并分析了融资方式和货币政策预期对乘数的影响。
This article contributes to the debate on fiscal multipliers, in the context of an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, featuring a rich fiscal policy block and a transmission mechanism for government spending shocks. I find the multiplier for government spending to be 1.07, which is largest on impact. The multipliers for labor and capital tax on impact are 0.13 and 0.34, respectively. The effects of tax cuts take time to build and exceed stimulative effects of spending by 12–20 quarters. I carry out counterfactual exercises to show how alternative financing methods and expected monetary policy have consequences for the size of fiscal multipliers.