The Reversal of Fortune Thesis Reconsidered
质疑Acemoglu等人提出的1500年至今世界收入分布发生“命运逆转”的观点，指出其使用的城市化与人口密度代理指标存在问题，改用更优指标后逆转关系不再显著。
Abstract Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson have claimed that the world income distribution underwent a ‘Reversal of Fortune’ from 1500 to the present, whereby formerly rich countries in what is now the developing world became poor while poor ones grew rich. We question their analysis with regard to both of their proxies for pre-modern income, namely urbanisation and population density. More specifically, an alternative measure of urbanisation with more observations generates a positive (but not significant) correlation between pre-modern and contemporary income, while a better measure of population density on arable land no longer produces a robust relationship.