Job Displacement Risk and the Cost of Business Cycles
分析当工人面临无法保险的工作流失风险时，经济周期的福利成本。通过理论模型和基于美国工人长期收入损失的实证分析，发现工作流失风险的周期性变化可导致显著的经济周期成本，而传统二阶矩分析会低估该成本。
This paper analyzes the welfare costs of business cycles when workers face uninsurable job displacement risk. The paper uses a simple macroeconomic model with incomplete markets to show that cyclical variations in the long-term earnings losses of displaced workers can generate arbitrarily large cost of business cycles even if the variance of individual income changes is constant over the cycle. In addition to the theoretical analysis, this paper conducts a quantitative study of the cost of business cycles using empirical evidence on the long-term earnings losses of US workers. The quantitative analysis shows that realistic variations in job displacement risk generate sizable costs of business cycles, even though a second-moment analysis would suggest negligible costs.