On the Sources of the Great Moderation
研究美国大稳健时期产出、工时和劳动生产率之间联动关系的变化，发现非技术冲击对产出波动的贡献下降，劳动生产率对冲击的周期响应改变，表明大稳健不能简单归因于“好运”。
The Great Moderation in the US economy has been accompanied by large changes in the comovements among output, hours, and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. Among other changes, our findings point to an increase in the volatility of hours relative to output, a shrinking contribution of nontechnology shocks to output volatility, and a change in the cyclical response of labor productivity to those shocks. That evidence suggests a more complex picture than that associated with “good luck” explanations of the Great Moderation.