Productivity, credit, risk, and the demand for weather index insurance in smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia
研究了埃塞俄比亚小农的化肥使用与天气指数保险需求的关系，发现声称愿意购买保险的人与实际购买者几乎不相关，实际购买者多为边际回报低的农户。
Abstract The article explores the relationship between fertilizer use and the demand for weather index insurance (WII) among smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. We examine whether fertilizer use is profitable under current smallholder production conditions, whether risk‐related factors affect fertilizer use, and we estimate the returns to inputs in the agricultural production function in the absence of insurance. We then study how these primitives of agricultural production functions relate to insurance demand. The study compares a survey‐based estimate of willingness to pay with actual uptake for the weather insurance, finding the stated and actual demand to be almost completely uncorrelated. While those with high marginal returns to inputs say they would purchase insurance, only those with low marginal returns actually do, consistent with the stated purpose of the product as input insurance. Insurance demand proves to be highly responsive to the existence and amount of randomly allocated insurance vouchers.