The Impact of Financing Surpluses and Large Financing Deficits on Tests of the Pecking Order Theory
扩展了啄序模型，区分融资盈余、正常缺口和大缺口，发现盈余时啄序系数最高（0.90），大缺口时最低（0.09），解释了小公司不遵循啄序理论及该理论解释力随时间下降的谜题。
This paper extends the basic pecking order model of Shyam‐Sunder and Myers by separating the effects of financing surpluses, normal deficits, and large deficits. Using a panel of US firms over the period 1971‐2005, we find that the estimated pecking order coefficient is highest for surpluses (0.90), lower for normal deficits (0.74), and lowest when firms have large financing deficits (0.09). These findings shed light on two empirical puzzles: 1) small firms, although having the highest potential for asymmetric information, do not behave according to the pecking order theory, and 2) the pecking order theory has lost explanatory power over time. We provide a solution to these puzzles by demonstrating that the frequency of large deficits is higher in smaller firms and increasing over time. We argue that our results are consistent with the debt capacity in the pecking order model .