Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Oil Shocks
解释1970年代油价与宏观经济紧密关联的原因，指出标准模型因缺少乘数加速器机制而无法用实际油价模拟出1974-75年深度衰退和1976-78年强劲复苏。
This paper offers a plausible explanation for the close link between oil prices and aggregate macroeconomic performance in the 1970s. Although this link has been well documented in the empirical literature, standard economic models are not able to replicate this link when actual oil prices are used to simulate the models. In particular, standard models cannot explain the depth of the recession in 1974–75 and the strong revival in 1976–78 based on the oil price movements in that period. This paper argues that a missing multiplier‐accelerator mechanism from standard models may hold the key.