The Assessment: EMU, Four Years On
回顾了经济与货币联盟前四年的运行，指出货币政策偏向保守和延迟，导致稳定与增长公约承压，并讨论了改革方向及供给侧、国际收支等协调难题。
This paper reviews the functioning of the Economic and Monetary Union over the first 4 years of its existence. Monetary policy is viewed as having been of the "inflation-targeting" type, but with a tendency towards delay and conservatism in adjustment, which may also reflect over-optimistic output growth forecasts. The resulting pressure on the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) illustrates the weakness in the "consensus view" of the harmonious interaction of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side policies, which requires policy in all three areas to be "correct". In discussing reform of the SGP, a looser but still constraining form of fiscal agreement is advocated. The supply-side and balance-of-payments issues involved in inter-country adjustment also interact importantly with the SGP and are identified as key areas of difficulty in a still "immature" monetary union, with separate labour-market structures. Here the mechanisms for coordination are more or less absent.