Imports under a Foreign Exchange Constraint
提出两个进口模型，在传统变量基础上加入外汇流入和国际储备等进口能力指标，用21个发展中国家1970-83年数据估计，发现新模型比传统模型和Hemphill模型更能解释进口行为。
To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakers must estimate import demand relative to the foreign exchange available. Traditional models estimate import demand as a function of relative prices (the real exchange rate) and income (gross domestic product) but omit changes in foreign exchange. In the 1980s, however, declines in foreign lending and the terms of trade and increased debt service costs reduced foreign exchange availability in most developing countries and limited import capacity. In this article two import models are presented which incorporate both the traditional variables and indicators of import capacity—foreign exchange inflows and international reserves. The first model assumes that import prices are exogenous, but in the second model import prices are endogenous—allowing for government attempts to reduce import demand by increasing the domestic import price. The models are estimated using data for twenty-one developing countries for 1970–83. The results suggest that the import model presented here does a better job of explaining import behavior than do the traditional model (which excludes changes in foreign exchange) and the Hemphill model (which excludes relative import prices and income).