Time to Change What to Sow: Risk Preferences and Technology Adoption Decisions of Cotton Farmers in China
通过调查和田野实验，研究中国棉农十年前是否采用转基因Bt棉花的决策，发现更风险厌恶或损失厌恶的农民采用更晚，而高估小概率的农民采用更早。
Abstract This paper examines the role of individual risk attitudes in the decision to adopt a new form of agricultural biotechnology in China. I conducted a survey and a field experiment to elicit the risk preferences of Chinese farmers, who faced the decision of whether to adopt genetically modified Bt cotton a decade ago. In my analysis, I expand the measurement of risk preferences beyond expected utility theory to incorporate prospect theory. I find that farmers who are more risk averse or more loss averse adopt Bt cotton later. Farmers who overweight small probabilities adopt Bt cotton earlier.