Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment
用一个包含多重均衡失业率的理性预期模型解释金融危机，指出资产价格无上界是理性解释危机的关键特征，并将资产价格暴跌视为预期冲击导致失业率永久上升。
This article uses a rational expectations model with multiple equilibrium unemployment rates to explain financial crises. The model has equilibria where asset prices are unbounded above. I argue that this is an important feature of any rational-agent explanation of a financial crisis, since for the expansion phase of the crisis to be rational, investors must credibly believe that asset prices could keep increasing forever with positive probability. I explain the sudden crash in asset prices that precipitates a financial crisis as a large shock to expectations that leads to a permanent increase in the unemployment rate.