Monetary Policy, Judgment, and Near-Rational Exuberance
研究宏观经济预测中使用判断或附加因子如何扰乱均衡结果，提出新凯恩斯框架下的一种新现象“狂热均衡”，并探讨政策制定者如何降低其风险。
We study how the use of judgment or “add-factors” in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We examine the possibility of a new phenomenon, which we call exuberance equilibria, in the New Keynesian monetary policy framework. Inclusion of judgment in forecasts can lead to self-fulfilling fluctuations in a subset of the determinacy region. We study how policymakers can minimize the risk of exuberance equilibria.