The transmission mechanism in a changing world
用广义脉冲响应函数识别美国产出冲击向欧洲经济传导速度与强度的变化因素，发现汇率、金融价格、资本流动、贸易和货币政策是关键变量，并分析了美国大衰退对欧洲的强影响。
Abstract The paper aims to identify those factors that cause changes in the speed and strength of the international transmission of output shocks from the USA to specified European economies. These factors are identified through the use of generalized impulse response functions conditioned on histories defined by an abrupt transition VAR. The chosen transition variables comprise changes in exchange rates, financial prices, international capital flows, trade links and monetary policy instruments. Besides the identification of asymmetric responses, the proposed model is useful in analyzing the strong effect of the recent US recession on the European economies and changes in business cycle synchronization over time. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.