Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves
利用横截面与时间序列恩格尔曲线的系统性差异，构建中国增长与通胀的替代估计，发现官方统计平滑了现实：2000年代真实通胀更高、消费增长被高估，而1990年代低通胀时期则相反。
China has experienced remarkably stable growth and inflation in recent years according to official statistics. We use systematic discrepancies between cross-sectional and time-series Engel curves to construct alternative estimates of Chinese growth and inflation. Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version of reality. Official inflation rose in the 2000s, but our estimates indicate that true inflation was still higher and consumption growth was overstated. In contrast, inflation was overstated and growth understated during the low-inflation 1990s. These patterns hold for the food Engel curve, and for numerous other categories, such as grain as a fraction of food.