Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?
分析金融和贸易全球化如何影响新兴市场发生金融危机的可能性，发现贸易全球化降低危机概率，而金融全球化可能增加危机概率，尤其当贸易成本高时。悲观预期可自我实现，导致商品和资产需求崩溃，伴随经常账户逆转和收入投资下降。低收入国家更易受此类需求型金融危机影响。模型量化评估与新兴市场金融危机的主要典型事实一致。
We analyze the effects of financial and trade globalization on the likelihood of financial crashes in emerging markets. While trade globalization always makes crashes less likely, financial globalization may make them more likely, especially when trade costs are high. Pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling and lead to a collapse in demand for goods and assets. Such a crash comes with a current account reversal and drops in income and investment. Lower-income countries are more prone to such demand-based financial crises. A quantitative evaluation shows our model is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial crashes in emerging markets.